"Whoever wishs to foresee the future
must consult the past; for human events ever resemble those of preceding
times. This arises from the fact that they are produced by men who ever
have been, and ever shall be, animated by the same passions, and thus
they necessarily have the same results." --Machiavelli
Operational Risk incidents are surrounding us on a global basis. The continuity of operations in the rescue and relief efforts in Beirut. The security of privacy information and Internet politics with Google and 3+ other global companies. A growing threat while Islam converts continuously flock from across the globe, to conflict zones. The economic integrity of global banking with new rule-sets and continuous funds transfer oversight.
All of these Operational Risk Management (ORM) challenges, require the same intelligence-led investigations, to establish the ground truth and then to enable an effective "DecisionAdvantage."
Intelligence-led investigations today include the use of Artificial Intelligence (AI) automated Internet Bots, to troll the Internet and Open Source content (OSINT) for the collectors to find what they are looking for. This begins with a hypothesis and then the development of an algorithm, to carry out the automated mechanism for collection.
These Intelligence-led investigations also include the use of new forensically sound methods and proven procedures for collection of digital data, from a myriad of technology platforms including laptops, IoT's and cell phones.
These methods have been proven and certified in the forensic sciences for decades and follow many of the legally bound and court tested rules associated with evidence collection, preservation and presentation.
Digital Forensic tools and 21st century capabilities enable global enterprises, law enforcement and governments to not only discover what they are looking for, but to use this in a court of law to verify the truth.
The monitoring and collection of information associated with people begins various intersections with the context, relevance and legality of storing it, analyzing it and when to destroy it. What is at stake? The ability to do this effectively inside the walls of the global enterprise corporate headquarters, the Regional Fusion Center or buildings off Rt. 123.
"DecisionAdvantage" is a term that promotes the connotation of competition, safety or defeating an adversary, yet only one will apply as you begin to understand the environment and the circumstances under which information is being utilized for one or the other.
If you are making decisions on the most safe and ideal drop points for water, food and medical triage supplies in a Middle East or an African nation, decisions are being made with information collected from satellites, humans, and perhaps the national geological scientists at CalTech.
It isn't until you take all of these elements into context and establish relevancy with human brainpower, that you will make an informed decision to give you an advantage of improved safety and security to achieve your objectives.
Investigators or Analysts are leveraging the use of 21st century software, hardware and telecommunications cloud infrastructure to more efficiently arrive at the answers,. They utilize the hard hypothesis or questions being asked, and must improve their training, education and awareness to the associated human factors.
Predicting human behavior is difficult if not impossible.
What is more realistic is the utilization of AI systems to assist the human in trying to achieve "DecisionAdvantage".
"History, by appraising...[the students] of the past, will enable them to judge of the future." --Thomas Jefferson
